Monday, November 24, 2014
The Pathways Advisory Group, Inc. office will be closed for the following holidays:
Thursday, November 27th, 2014
Friday, November 28th, 2014
Wednesday, December 24th, 2014
Thursday, December 25th, 2014
Thursday, January 1st, 2015
Monday, January 19th, 2015
Monday, February 16th, 2015
Friday, April 3rd, 2015
Monday, May 25th, 2015
Friday, July 3rd, 2015
Monday, September 7th, 2015
In case of an emergency, please contact Schwab at 1-800-435-4000.
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Friday, November 21, 2014
|Pathways Advisory Group, Inc. |
David Williamson, CFP®
We are proud to announce the birth of David's grandson, Ezra Booth Straley, born to Leah and Brenda Straley. He was born on October 19, 2014; he weighed in at 7 lbs 3 oz. Congratulations to the family on the birth of their baby boy!
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
|Pathways Advisory Group. Inc.|
Michelle Carter, CFP®
We are proud to announce the birth of Madelyn Richelle and Jack Dwayne, born to Michelle and Ryan Carter. They were born on October 27th, 2014. Madelyn weighed in at 5 lbs 8 oz and was 19 inches long. Jack weighed in at 5 lbs 12 oz and was 18 inches long. They and their proud parents and big sisters are doing well. Congratulations to them on the birth of their twins!
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Monday, November 17, 2014
|Pathways Advisory Group, Inc.|
We are almost through with our food drive and want to offer a quick update:
With your help, we were able to fill the 55-gallon drum located in our lobby area, and are working towards a second barrel. It is a quarter full at this time. We have also received enough financial donations to provide 4,545 meals.
After November 20th, the Community Food Bank will pick up the two drums and any final donations. Your generosity will help feed the 220,000 residents they serve each month, including 90,000 children.
We are excited about making a difference and helping the community. Thank you so much for your contributions to the first ever Pathways Food Drive!
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Friday, November 7, 2014
Outside the Flags
Volatility is back. Just as many people were starting to think markets only ever move in one direction, the pendulum has swung the other way. Anxiety is a completely natural response to these events. Acting on those emotions, though, can end up doing us more harm than good.
There are a number of tidy-sounding theories about why markets have become more volatile. Among the issues frequently splashed across newspaper front pages: global growth fears, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and even the Ebola virus.
In many cases, these issues are not new. The US Federal Reserve gave notice last year it was contemplating its exit from quantitative easing (an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective). Much of Europe has been struggling with sluggish growth or recession for years, and there are always geopolitical tensions somewhere.
In some ways, the increase in volatility in recent weeks could be just as much a reflection of the fact that volatility has been very low for some time. Investors in aggregate were satisfied earlier this year with a low price on risk, but now they are applying a higher discount rate to risky assets. So the increase in market volatility is an expression of uncertainty. Markets do not move in one direction. If they did, there would be no return from investing in stocks and bonds. And if volatility remained low forever, there would probably be more reason to worry.
As to what happens next, no one knows for sure. That is the nature of risk. In the meantime, investors can help manage their risk by diversifying broadly across and within asset classes. We have seen the benefit of that in recent weeks as bonds have rallied strongly.
For those still anxious, here are seven simple truths to help you live with volatility:
1. Don’t make presumptions.
Remember that markets are unpredictable and do not always react the way the experts predict they will. When central banks relaxed monetary policy during the crisis of 2008-09, many analysts warned of an inflation breakout. If anything, the reverse has been the case with central banks fretting about deflation.
2. Someone is buying.
Quitting the equity market when prices are falling is like running away from a sale. While prices have been discounted to reflect higher risk, that’s another way of saying expected returns are higher. And while the media headlines proclaim that “investors are dumping stocks,” remember someone is buying them. Those people are often the long-term investors.
3. Market timing is hard.
Recoveries can come just as quickly and just as violently as the prior correction. For instance, in March 2009—when market sentiment was at its worst—the S&P 500 turned and put in seven consecutive months of gains totalling almost 80%. This is not to predict that a similarly vertically shaped recovery is in the cards, but it is a reminder of the dangers for long-term investors of turning paper losses into real ones and paying for the risk without waiting around for the recovery.
4. Never forget the power of diversification.
While equity markets have turned rocky again, highly rated government bonds have flourished. This helps limit the damage to balanced fund investors. So diversification spreads risk and can lessen the bumps in the road.
5. Markets and economies are different things.
The world economy is forever changing, and new forces are replacing old ones. This applies both between and within economies. For instance, falling oil prices can be bad for the energy sector but good for consumers. New economic forces are emerging as global measures of poverty, education, and health improve. A recent OECD study shows how far the world has come in the past 200 years.1
6. Nothing lasts forever.
Just as smart investors temper their enthusiasm in booms, they keep a reserve of optimism during busts. And just as loading up on risk when prices are high can leave you exposed to a correction, dumping risk altogether when prices are low means you can miss the turn when it comes. As always in life, moderation is a good policy.
7. Discipline is rewarded.
The market volatility is worrisome, no doubt. The feelings being generated are completely understandable and familiar to those who have seen this before. But through discipline, diversification, and understanding how markets work, the ride can be made bearable. At some point, value re-emerges, risk appetites reawaken, and for those who acknowledged their emotions without acting on them, relief replaces anxiety.
1. “How Was Life? Global Well-Being since 1820,” OECD, October 2, 2014. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/how-waslife_9789264214262-en.
For more articles, visit Dimensional’s client site at my.dimensional.com/insight/outside_the_flags.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes, and it is not to
be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products or services.
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful.
The S&P 500 Index is not available for direct investment and does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an
actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
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