What’s in store for markets this year? Early predictions are mixed. The evidence for continued struggles is compelling. The evidence for recovery is compelling. A successful forecast must objectively account for all variables, such as interest rates, credit markets, real estate, foreclosures, regulation, global markets, unemployment, consumer behavior, government spending, taxation, etc. (not to mention the weather!!!) and apply the proper prediction and weighting to each. The evidence suggests the task is, at best, extremely difficult…
2009 will not make a forecaster’s resume!
Gary A. Shilling, "Field Day for Short-Sellers," Forbes, February 16, 2009.
- S&P 500 + 55%.
- MSCI Emerging Markets Index + 103%.
- The Hong Kong Small-Cap Index + 114%.
- The Hong Kong Value Index + 58%.
- Dow Jones US REIT Index + 101%.
Michael Mackenzie and David Oakley, "No End in Sight for Equities’ Bear Hug," Financial Times, February 25, 2009.
- Russell 3000 Value Index + 57%
- Dimensional Small Cap Value Index + 121%.
Quotation attributed to Lakshman Acuthan, managing director, Economic Cycle Research Institute. Gongloff, Mark, "Stocks Still Can’t Ignore The Numbers" Wall Street Journal, March 2 2009.